Why should investors be watching 5G, financials, healthcare, and industrials in 2021? Why do Cloudflare (NYSE:NET) and Docusign (NASDAQ:DOCU) have big upside potential? Will Berkshire Hathaway, Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), and NBC’s Peacock surprise investors in 2021? Will Roblox score a big IPO? Are Marriott International and Match Group poised for a comeback? And how will the cannabis industry fare in the new year? A few Fools tackle those questions, talk about other stocks, and make some reckless predictions about 2021 in this episode of Motley Fool Money.
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This video was recorded on January 1, 2021.
Mac Greer: Gentlemen, Happy New Year.
Jason Moser: Happy New Year.
Ron Gross: How are you doing, Mac? Happy New Year to you as well.
Greer: Well, thank you. It is our 2021 Preview Show. Guys, Chris Hill, a late scratch. His back is [laughs] bothering him. So, all I ask is that we put together a show that does not aggravate his back. Okay?
Gross: [laughs] That’s a tall order, my friend.
Greer: Okay. I think you can do it. [laughs] The good news is that we get to say goodbye to 2020. Are you ready to say goodbye to 2020?
Gross: I’m ready to say good riddance.
Moser: I think a lot of us said goodbyes, it’s just a little while back, even Mac, it’s been a long time coming and feels like [laughs].
Greer: Woof, 2020. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. [laughs] We are going to talk some 2021. It’s our Preview Show. We’re going to talk trends you’re excited about, we’re going to talk stocks you’re excited about, we’re going to talk about some stocks to avoid, CEOs on the hot seat, IPOs, and so much more. But let’s begin with one industry you are watching in 2021. Jason Moser?
Moser: Yeah. Well, I’m watching healthcare, and specifically in regards to healthcare, we talk a lot about the Internet of Things, that’s all the devices and everything being connected these days to the Internet, but also, there’s a subset of that Internet of Things, in the Internet of Medical Things. I think that’s going to be really neat. We saw some signs at least in 2020 with the Livongo acquisition from Teladoc Health, that merger there, that was very much centered around that idea. But the Internet of Medical Things is connected to infrastructure, medical devices, software applications, health systems and services. It just enables all sorts of different advancements in healthcare, from remote patient monitor, monitoring the virtual visits, image transmission, robotic surgery. This is something that’s really up-and-coming. We’re seeing a lot of investments from healthcare companies, device-makers, hospitals, insurance companies, you name it. It’s a big point of focus for the industry at large. It’s going to be a big market opportunity, projected to hit somewhere in the neighborhood of $250 billion by 2026. I’m really excited about the capabilities that are being introduced into our healthcare system, and I think given where we were in 2020, with all of the healthcare challenges, this is going to be a really neat thing to watch in 2021 and beyond.
Greer: You may get to this later in the show, but how about a few names? When I hear this, what are some few names I should be watching here?
Moser: Well, I think definitely, Livongo was the name I think that stood out to a lot of people, now part of the Teladoc family. So, keep Teladoc on your radar. Another company that I really like, a stock that I own, Masimo, which is a company that started out in pulse oximetry, which is ultimately just measuring the oxygen levels in your blood when you go in to the hospital, but they continue to build out their portfolio of medical devices that will enable more remote patient monitoring. So, you keep an eye on Masimo as well.
Greer: Ron Gross, one industry you’re watching in 2021.
Gross: I’m going to keep a close eye on infrastructure and industrials. President-elect Biden proposed a $2.4 trillion spending program on energy and infrastructure. He wants to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, clearly wants to keep his promise of building back better. He wants to invest in roads, bridges, green spaces, water, electricity, and universal broadband. All great ways for us to invest. The plan is designed to address climate change while building a new eco-friendly infrastructure. So, that’s going to affect transportation, energy, autos, a whole wide range of industrials. I think industrials will also benefit from the recovery in global economic activity, low interest rates, continuing low interest rates I think will also benefit these folks. I’ll give you a few names; keeping an eye on industrials like Caterpillar, Deere, Martin Marietta. Alternative energy companies: Brookfield Renewables, NextEra Energy, I think could all benefit. Biden certainly was not the only the President-elect to propose a huge infrastructure bill, but I feel that this could be the time where we actually get one passed.
Greer: Okay guys, let’s talk about a trend you’re excited about in this new year, 2021. Ron, let’s start with you. How about one trend for 2021 that has you fired up?
Gross: I’m truly excited about the pace of innovation. What does that mean? It’s fascinating to me to think about all the things that we’ve achieved of late. I think the pace actually only increases from here. So, it’s whether it’s our ability to produce vaccines at blinding speed, or the pace of pharmaceutical innovation, what has occurred with computers in the cloud in a relatively short period of time, artificial intelligence, augmented reality. We’re simply the way the world pivoted so quickly when we all of a sudden had to quarantine at home. I’m thinking of Zoom, and DoorDash, and Instacart, companies like that. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my favorite gene therapy, gene editing stocks, an exciting trend, the pace is picking up just exponentially. 2021 and beyond is going to be so exciting in that space, and it will be the future of medicine.
Greer: So along those lines though, Ron, we saw just as you mentioned, just such incredible innovation in this past year. A lot of companies pulled their growth forward. We had companies talking about how basically five, six, seven years worth of innovation in the first six months or so of 2020. So as investors, do we need to reset our expectations for this coming year given how much innovation there was last year? We can’t keep innovating at this rate, can we?
Gross: Although I think innovation leads to innovation, and we do see it gap up exponentially in that regard, but I think you make a good point. We do need to be careful. It will probably slow a little bit, certainly from an income statement perspective, it will pull a lot of revenue forward. It will be really interesting to see how companies keep their foot on the gas in terms of R&D and the pace of innovation, but some of the earnings and revenue probably already occurred, that would have occurred next year, and in fact, we’ll see some one time occurrences from 2020 that won’t repeat itself in 2021. Again, I’m thinking of the Instacarts and the DoorDashes. We won’t see that continued growth rate. In fact, growth rates will pull back as a result of COVID being in the rearview mirror, but I think innovation continues.
Greer: Jason Moser, one trend you’re watching?
Moser: Yeah, I’m thinking in line with what Ron was talking about there in regard to the pace of innovation. I run one of our services here, the Next-Gen Supercycle services, which is focused on innovation and technology, and specifically 5G. I’m really excited about the beginning of the roll out of 5G here for 2021. We heard so much about it all throughout 2020. I think on the one hand, it’s very understandable for folks to be extremely excited about it, on the other, let’s temper that enthusiasm. Remember, this is going to be a journey. This is going to be a little bit of a marathon, but we’re really just at the starting point now where 5G is starting to roll out. The networks are becoming capable, more devices are becoming capable. There’s so many players in that value chain when you talk about this investment and this infrastructure and all of the benefits that we’ll get from it; from operators, to towers, to chips and hardware and software, cloud computing, edge computing, content delivery, cybersecurity, healthcare, like I just mentioned. So many more different players in the value chain and opportunities for investors. We’re really just at the starting point there.
Just to add a little color to that, the GSMA, that’s the Global System for Mobile Communications, they predicted by 2025, we’ll see 1.8 billion 5G connections. I know that sounds like a lot, and that’s because it is, but the interesting thing there is though, that’ll still only account for about 20% of global connection. So, that means that even by 2025, there’s still going to be so much runway ahead for even more connections and more possibilities when we talk about all of this amazing technology and the neat things that 5G and Wi-Fi 6 are both enabling, and then of course, we hear all of these companies already laying out strategies for 6G2, that’s pretty cool. A little bit further down the road, so let’s focus on 5G for now. I’m really excited about the possibilities.
Gross: Yet, I still can’t get Wi-Fi in my basement. [laughs] Can we work on that before we get the 6G?
Moser: Maybe get one of those mesh routers. It covers the whole house. [laughs].
Gross: I got it. [laughs]
Greer: Jason, I feel like I got lost like a few Gs ago, so I need you, as much as you can, explain 5G and specifically, what will it mean to me in a very concrete way, because I heard you talking about connections and towers and all this. But in my everyday life, what will 5G mean or why will it matter?
Moser: In simplest terms, 5G is going to lead to faster connections. It’s going to give us the opportunity to not only download data faster, but to download far more robust data more quickly. It’s going to lead to new innovations as we’re talking about in things like content delivery, for example. You’re talking about faster download speeds when we talk about things like 4K, for example, in video, or when you talk about gaming and next to zero latency, zero delay or lag time when you’re streaming something or playing a game or whatnot. Those are just a couple of examples, but then we can talk about healthcare delivery, like I was talking about before. It’s going to add all sorts of functionality to the payment space. We’re talking about smart cities. All sorts of different things. Automobiles connecting with one another. There’s just going to be a lot of different things that it enables, but it’s going to be because of those faster speeds and the greater bandwidth to download more data with that faster speed.
Greer: I’m coming around. It may help Ron in his basement, huh? [laughs].
Moser: It very well could.
Gross: You never know.
Greer: Dare to dream, Ron.
Emily Flippen: Happy New Year. I’m happy this year’s ending. Let’s hope the next one is a little bit better.
Greer: You and me both, goodbye 2020. Let’s move on to our 2021 preview here. Let’s begin with one stock or industry that you think is poised for upside in 2021. Emily, what do you think?
Flippen: Well, earlier in the show, you and Ron made a great point about businesses pulling forward growth and how that could impact their stocks in 2021. There’s one business that I really like that pulled forward growth, but I think it’s poised for an even better 2021, and that’s DocuSign. Now, the reason why I think DocuSign is different than a lot of these other businesses, the way you can argue Zoom potentially has a challenging 2021, is that DocuSign is in a better position to retain those customers that they acquired during the pandemic, because most of their business actually comes from up-selling existing customers, not getting new customers into their network. By operating in contract life cycle management, not just e-signatures, really building out the value chain, owning that contract for the moment it’s created to the moment it’s signed, integrating all of these amazing technology sources like artificial intelligence, to find places assigned to automatically read contracts to parse through them, I think there’s a lot of upside for DocuSign still ahead of it.
Greer: Emily, who or what do you think is the biggest threat to DocuSign? Is it an established player like an Adobe or is it people going back to the office, where the work-from-home dynamic changes?
Flippen: I think the biggest threat to DocuSign is actually their cheaper tiers. We saw it in 2020 that high-value customers, when looking to cut costs, would downgrade their subscription, and it’s funny, because DocuSign doesn’t have any true competitors in terms of their entire suite of products, even looking at Adobe, they don’t offer the same solutions that DocuSign does. But I think DocuSign gets around this by acquiring companies, not that are competitive, but that are accretive to their core product. They made an acquisition of a business called Seal Software a couple of years ago that became the foundation for its AI initiatives, allowing them to build out entirely new product suites. Taking that approach, I hope, will allow them to continue to up-sell those new customers.
Greer: Jason Moser, one stock or industry that you think is poised for upside in 2021?
Moser: Yeah, one that we’ve been talking about a lot here going into the end of the year is Cloudflare. This is one actually I’m really looking forward to buying shares for myself once I can shut up about it long enough. [laughs] But Cloudflare, it’s a global cloud computing platform. It helps businesses become more secure, more speedy and more reliable through a suite of products that it offers from everything from cybersecurity to edge computing and beyond. I like the company’s business model. They generate revenue a number of different ways with the pay-as-you-go channel versus also adding subscriptions and contracts in there. Essentially, meeting customers on their terms, which to customer-centric businesses, you got to like that. There’s a good founder story there as well with Matthew Prince, as the co-founder and the CEO of the company still today. They have an edge computing platform in Cloudflare Workers that I think is really neat and it’s going to play into that 5G angle that we were talking about earlier in the show as we look to bring data close to the actual source of the computing. The business is on the rise. Management recently raised guidance for the full-year, now expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of $423 million of revenue, that would be growth of about 48% from the previous year.
The neat thing here is Cloudflare does a lot of different things from security to performance, to reliability and more. That’s actually a little bit of a story to how the company got its ticker N-E-T, as opposed to something more in line with the actual name of the company. They are looking to build this total network solution that customers can plug into and instantly move data securely, and reliably, and quickly, and efficiently. They came up with that ticker NET as opposed to something else a little bit more in line with the name because of that general solution. They’re looking to become this all-serving network, so to speak. I just thought that was a neat little story as to how they got their ticker, and it tells you a lot about what their ultimate goals with the company are.
Greer: Let’s move onto one stock or industry to avoid or at least keep on a very short leash. We have about two and half minutes left, so we’re going to keep this pretty tight here. But Emily, what do you think?
Flippen: Sure, I can keep mine very short, because many investors will already be familiar with this industry. That’s the cruise line industry. It needs very little explanation for why you should have it on a short leash in 2021. Cruises might be coming back next year, but to be clear, we need to see actual consumers spending lots of money onboard to get them to pre-pandemic levels of business. I think that’s unlikely to happen for at least another few years, so if you’re investing in this industry, keep an eye out on spending levels and keep that industry on a short leash.
Greer: Jason Moser?
Moser: Yeah, I’m going with hotels here, and part of this has to do with, I think we’re going to lose some business travel. There’s some estimates out there of 19%-36% of all business-related travel could go the way of the dodo after the dust settles from all those COVID stuff. I think some business travel will come back, but I also think the enthusiasm behind Airbnb’s IPO is not misguided. When you look at the numbers that Airbnb charts up there, 91% of all traffic goes to Airbnb through direct or unpaid channels. There’s just tremendous brand awareness, and it’s becoming the normal way of travel for these up-and-coming generations of travelers. I think hotels are really going to have to figure something out here to keep their businesses growing.
Greer: Let’s wrap up with one CEO that you think is on the hot seat in 2021. Jason, what do you think?
Moser: Yeah, Nikola’s Mark Russell. Sure, he’s only been the CEO since June of 2020, but this is an electric car company with a ton of baggage, zero revenue, and somehow still a $6 billion market cap, it just doesn’t make any sense.
Greer: Tell me more.
Moser: They better make something happen in 2021 or Mark Russell, hey, listen, he’s definitely, people are going to be looking for him to deliver something in 2021, so you better bring something to the table.
Greer: Emily, who’s your CEO on the hot seat?
Flippen: Mine’s actually Douglas Bryant of Quidel, not a bad CEO, but Quidel and Bryant, in particular, have been really aggressive with their timelines of the launch of their new molecular diagnostic system Savannah in the past, it’s apparently spoke to get to market at some point in the second half of 2021. I’m keeping him on the hot seat to see if that actually happens.
Greer: Savannah, and what does Savannah do exactly?
Flippen: It’s a molecular diagnostics company. When you’re thinking about getting diagnosed for gene-based therapies, it can do it faster, cheaper, and more portable than the alternatives, big market opportunity, but also a very tall order.
Greer: What is your biggest question about business in the coming year? Ron Gross.
Gross: As both Jason and Emily spoke about it in the last segment, I’m really curious to see what happens to travel related stocks and how big the pent-up demand is. I think once COVID is behind us and the economy stabilizes, traveling for pleasure will come back in a pretty significant way. That does bode well for airlines, hotels, I think even cruises. I know Emily has a question with cruises and that makes sense to me. You keep an eye on the Southwests of the world, the Alaska Air, Marriott, Booking Holdings, even Carnival, I think, you wanted to keep an eye on. But my big question is, what happens with business travel, as Jason mentioned. That is so important to the airlines and the hotels, and my gut tells me that some of that business is lost forever. Getting on a plane to fly across the country for a two hour meeting is not coming back. I just don’t think it is. We’ll have to see what the new normal level of earnings are for these hospitality companies and travel companies. It’s too early to tell right now, but that’s a big question that I have.
Greer: Emily, what’s your biggest business question for 2021?
Flippen: I am really interested to see how the business of live entertainment could’ve been fundamentally changed from 2020 heading into 2021. I can make a really strong argument on either side of the equation for live entertainment, especially things like concerts. When you look at 2021, lots of artists have already canceled all of their concert plans for the next year. They’ve learned to adapt to the new normal finding ways to digitally connect with consumers. We talk so much about the third place, becoming this digital world in which we engage with audiences, and that same thing can be true for live entertainment. At the same time, pre-pandemic, live events were the single most lucrative part of the entertainment industry. People love to go out, connect with their friends, family, and favorite artists, in a real physical space. I’m interested to see if there is any fundamental change in demand for live entertainment next year.
Greer: Emily, you see a lot of bands and a lot of musicians trying to pivot to this virtual reality in the last year. It’s just not the same for me, I love live music. But the idea of paying $30, $40, $50 dollars to watch one of my favorite band’s virtually just doesn’t feel the same.
Flippen: I can understand that argument, but at the same time, if we rewind 10 years, you could also say the same thing about movie theaters, at the Imax experience. A lot of people said, “I love the feeling of going to see a really big blockbuster on opening night with all my friends, getting popcorn, waiting in line,” and now heading into 2021, it looks like movie theaters are dead in the water. 10 years from now, do you think live events go the way at the movie theater?
Greer: I think live events will be bigger than ever. That’s what I think. [laughs]
Gross: All I know is it’s way easy for me to access the restroom when I’m here in my house [laughs] then when I got 40,000 people in concert and I don’t want to miss this one.
Greer: I love that. As an over 50 year old, I can appreciate that. Thank you, Ron.
Greer: Let’s move on and talk about IPOs, because 2020, wow, what a year for IPOs. We had Snowflake with the biggest software IPO ever. We had Airbnb, DoorDash, just to name a few, so 2021, what’s on the IPO you would like to see, Ron?
Gross: There’s a really interesting company called Roblox that should be coming in 2021. They’re an online gaming platform valued at about $4 billion in the private market. It allows users to create, publish their own video games. Founded in 2004, and they make money through the sale of its Robux in-game currency, 31 million daily active users, that’s an 82% increase from a year-ago. First three quarters of 2020 had revenue of $589 million. Because of accounting rules and how they can recognize revenue, they’re still not profitable, but they did have positive cash flow of almost $300 million for the first three quarters. That’s something I really like to see. They were expected to IPO in December, but because of the amazing debuts of Airbnb and DoorDash on day one, they went back to the table and said, we’ve got to talk a little bit more about how to price this thing, because I don’t think they want to leave as much money on the table as those companies did. Hopefully we’ll see it in 2021.
Greer: Ron, earlier on this show, we talked about resetting expectations after this amazing year we’ve had in terms of innovation, in terms of a lot of growth getting pulled forward. For Roblox, is it going to get any better than a year where you have so many kids at home playing video games?
Gross: Probably not, and I would’ve maybe gone public anyway [laughs] and even if I had to have left them on the table, because you just don’t know. Sometimes a bird in the hand, you want to take that. Because as you say, now it is a great time for companies like Roblox — retention and keeping our customers is really important. They seem to have a customer for about 23 months right now. You want to see that increase, they’ll never approach something like Netflix, but you want to see that grow. They continue to charge those people through those Roblox currencies. I don’t know. You got to strike while the iron is hot, but I hope delaying doesn’t come back and bite them.
Greer: Roblox IPO day one, you’re buying?
Gross: I almost never buy IPOs on day one. Not to mention the restrictions we sometimes have on what we can buy or not. But I always like to let these things play out for a few days, if not weeks or months, and then I consider it.
Greer: Emily, what’s an IPO you’re fired up about in 2021?
Gross: This company isn’t as likely to IPO in 2021 as Roblox is, but I would be excited to see it IPO, and it’s Discord. A lot of listeners may be customers of Discord, or users of Discord. It’s Zoom-like and that’s being gracious to its platform, a platform where you can instant message, have video calls, voice calls with your friends, and it really got its bread and butter start in gaming. The gaming community is particularly interested in Discord, but it’s doing a lot to create groups and social networks really focused around communication that’s not face-to-face. The reason why I think it’s a really interesting business heading into 2021 is obviously they’ve acquired a lot of users over the course of the last eight to 12 months. But more importantly, we’ve seen bigger businesses, Zoom in particular, go after the consumer market. Zoom used to be business-focused, pre-pandemic. Now consumers, our parents, our grandparents, our kids, they’re using Zoom to connect with those around them. I can see either an IPO or some bigger acquisition in 2021.
Greer: You mentioned a bigger acquisition. If someone acquires Discord, who is the most likely suiter?
Flippen: I would really like to see Zoom acquire Discord. The reason is because it’s hard to see a business make the transition to consumers. When Zoom has successfully made that transition as they have this year, I think they have a bit of momentum to go after some smaller players that are making grab that our consumer-focused in general, that in this case would be Discord. I feel like if they let Discord get to the point of IPOing or otherwise becoming more successful, they will pay up if they want to acquire those users.
Greer: It is our 2021 preview, goodbye to 2020, good riddance. Woof, [laughs] hello to 2021.
Moser: That’s a two-show woof. [laughs]
Greer: It is a two-show woof.
Moser: Two woof shows I guess is a more appropriate way to say it.
Greer: It just felt like another woof. Now, in a minute we’re going to get to our reckless predictions, which is my favorite part of this show each year. But first, a quick round of fill in the blank. Are you ready?
Gross: Oh, yeah.
Greer: I love the enthusiasm. [laughs] In 2021, _____ is going to surprise a lot of investors. Jason Moser?
Moser: Well, Mac, we spend, I think, at least a little part of 2020 having a little fun at the expense of NBC and their new-fangled streaming app and the name that they came up with, Peacock. [laughs] I mean, we gave it it’s due, I think, had a little fun with it on the shows. But I’m here to tell you, man, I think that NBC’s Peacock app is going to surprise a lot of people in the coming year. I say this as a Peacock subscriber, not just an ad-supporting subscriber, Mac. I’m actually paying money for this subscription. I don’t regret it, I’ve got not one regret. I think it’s amazing to see what they’ve done in actually a short period of time with this thing. Now, over 26 million sign-ups. I think the interesting thing about this app is the way they view it. I think a lot of people look at this as a Netflix versus a Peacock thing. I don’t know that’s the right way to look at it, because Netflix is a subscription play, Peacock really is an ad play. Advertising is primary revenue.
Greer: Can I stop you right there? Because I don’t think anyone is asking about Netflix versus Peacock. I think [laughs] it’s more like Peacock versus Quibi. I mean, you’ve got Disney+. I think you need to slow your roll. 26 million is great, but is anyone out there really squaring off Peacock versus Netflix?
Moser: Well, I don’t think they are. No, I think you’re right there. I don’t know that anybody really is giving Netflix any competition except for maybe Disney+. But I think that Peacock is going to surprise a lot of people. I think part of that is going to be with the content that they have on there now, highly recommend Mr. Mercedes, great series of books, excellent show, they’ve done a good job with it. Yellowstone, I’m sucked in, I can’t get enough of that show. Let’s not forget, The Office is moving solely over to Peacock on January 1st.
The neat thing about that is that it’s only going to be the first two seasons that you can stream ad-supported. If you want to get anything after the second season, you have to subscribe. They’re going to also include a lot of extras and exclusives for all of those Office fans out there, and there are plenty of them out there for sure. I think that Office transition is going to drive some more people over to the Peacock app in 2021. Honestly, they’ve done a pretty good job with the interface, I think they’ll continue to work on that. But I tell you, given the hard time that we gave them over the course of the year, I did not think it would be as successful as it has been. Now clearly there have been some tailwinds there, but I think they are poised to continue to do well, I think that’ll surprise a lot of people.
Greer: I apologize for the Quibi comparison, [laughs] totally unfair.
Moser: One of them is still in business, Mac. [laughs]
Greer: Emily Flippen, in 2021, _____ is going to surprise a lot of investors.
Flippen: I’ll say Etsy. The reason why I think it’s going to surprise a lot of investors is because they’ve already had an amazing 2020. I think they are well-poised to also have an amazing 2021. Withholding Tesla, which is just added in the S&P 500, Etsy was the single best performing constituent throughout 2020. That doesn’t make me scared as an Etsy investor in the least. When you think about the businesses that retained both users, so people who shop on the platform, and merchants, people who are creating the stuff to sell on the platform, Etsy overcame that first hurdle in 2020, which was getting those direct clicks. So, people going to the Etsy platform specifically looking for stuff to buy and getting their credit card information and getting merchants to make up from lack of employment for instance, to find new ways to generate revenue and cash. So, when you head into 2021, I actually think they’ve built up so much awareness, they have so many more emails and credit card information heading into next year in comparison to what they had this year. I think Etsy is poised well to have a good 2021.
Greer: All right. Ron Gross, in 2021, ____ is going to surprise a lot of investors.
Gross: I’d be remiss if I did a preview show and didn’t mention Berkshire Hathaway. I’m going to say Berkshire Hathaway and they’re going to surprise with a humongously exciting acquisition and a market-beating increase in their share price for the year, which isn’t necessarily always the case as of late. They’ve got around $145 billion in cash waiting to be deployed, Buffet talks about his elephant gun or an elephant size acquisition. I want to see it. I also thought last year they’d buy back some stock, they didn’t buy back nearly as much as my reckless prediction said they would, but I’d like to see that happen as well.
Greer: Your reckless prediction last year was that Berkshire would buyback 15% of outstanding shares and initiate an annual cash dividend equal to 1.5% yield.
Gross: I was a little bit off on that.
Greer: It’s all right. You also said, as a surprise on last year’s show, “Value investing would make its comeback [laughs] and regain its lead over growth.” How did that work out?
Gross: [laughs] Let me see. 2021, as I mentioned at the top of the show, infrastructure industrials. This is the year.
Greer: I like it. Jason, you said Bed Bath&Beyond. On last year’s 2020 preview, you said Bed Bath&Beyond is going to surprise some people with some glass half full results. Jason gets to take a victory lap, right?
Gross: Yeah, I think so.
Moser: I guess technically you did, that’s all right.
Greer: All right, OK.
Moser: Thinking I have glass half full perspective paid off for me.
Greer: I like it. So next fill in the blank, Emily, will have you lead off. This time next year, I think I’m going to regret not owning _____.
Flippen: A Peloton. I can only speak for myself, [laughs] but the past nine to 10 months have not been great for my waistband, my jeans may not fit anymore, I might be wearing yoga pants.
Greer: You can speak for me also.
Flippen: [laughs] I think I’m going to regret not owning a Peloton in particular. But in general, some sort of home fitness equipment.
Greer: All right. Jason, I think I’m going to regret not owning _____.
Moser: Yeah, I’m going stock here, Mac, and a company called nCino. Now, this is not to be confused with the 1992 blockbuster hit Encino Man, starring Pauly Shore and Brendan Fraser and Sean Astin. No, this is nCino. This is actually a software company, a SaaS company that provides an operating system for banks to provide customer relationship management and customer onboarding, account opening, loan origination and whatnot. So, this is a software company that provides a platform for banks to really do their business. There is a neat co-founder story there. It’s an IPO from July of 2020, so it’s still a fairly new business to the public markets. But you got to love that SaaS subscription model. They’re doing something right here because about 20% of the banks in the U.S. already have nCino as a provider. They already have a nice customer base in a big one in there in Bank of America. So, anytime you have Bank of America as a customer, I feel like maybe you’re doing something right. It reminds me a little bit of Ellie Mae, if you remember that mortgage software provider. There are some network effects involved. The longer it goes on there, some switching costs and that can get a little pricing power. It’s a stock that I think is going to be when we talk a lot more about here in 2021. I think I’m going to have to make sure that I remind myself to get a little bit of that before too long.
Greer: Ron Gross, this time next year, I’m going to regret not owning _____.
Gross: Airbnb. Shares of Airbnb. You know what? From this value investor, I’m going to say, I don’t think it matters what the value is. I think I’m going to regret not owning it. I’m not an owner yet. Will I actually pull the trigger? We’ll see. But I do think the shares are going to be higher 12 months from now.
Greer: One word answer to this next one. An industry stock or business that’s going to bounce back in a big way in 2021 is _____. Jason?
Greer: All right. Emily?
Flippen: Match Group.
Greer: I like it. Let’s close with our reckless predictions, this is my favorite part of the show. One reckless prediction for 2021. Jason Moser, kick us off.
Moser: I’ve talked a lot about Cerence over the year here on our shows, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. This is a company that just spun off from Nuance Communications in late 2019 to become its own publicly traded company. It’s really only been on the public markets for a short period of time. But the stock has just continued to light it up, up close to 350% this year as we tape. Cerence, as you know, is in the artificial intelligence market for automobiles primarily, utilizing things like augmented reality and audio and whatnot, to really build that more intuitive and safer automobile. Very interesting headline here, they just received funding from Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy to actually drive innovation and automotive assistance for autonomous cars. So, they’re really spearheading that autonomous car movement. I wouldn’t be surprised at all, even given its short public life-year on its own, if Cerence got acquired at some point in 2021, because the technology is phenomenal, they’re really doing a lot of things well judging from their backlog numbers. I think this is a business that a lot of folks out there would cover, it’s still a small-cap company, really. So, it’d be an easy acquisition for some big tech player trying to diversify a little bit.
Greer: Ron Gross?
Gross: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, under the leadership of Tom Brady, will win Super Bowl 55 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. Also, the stock market will be up 12% next year in honor of Tom Brady wearing the No. 12.
Greer: I like it. Emily.
Flippen: I think that cannabis companies, in general, are going to have a worse 2021 than they did 2020. This is classic, “Buy the rumor, sell the news.”
Greer: Dan Boyd, bring us home.
Dan Boyd: All right, Mac. I got two quick ones. One, cruise ships are done. [laughs] It’s nothing, nobody wants to do that anymore. Two, Peloton. In 2021, with the vaccines coming out and people going outside again, the last thing I want to do is spend six more months working out in my basement here. No way, know how. Home workout equipment, done.
Greer: I love it. Emily, Ron, Jason, Dan Boyd, Happy New Year!
Dan Boyd: Happy New Year, Mac.
Flippen: Happy New Year.
Moser: Happy New Year.
Gross: Happy New Year, Mac.
Greer: That’s it for Motley Fool Money this week, this show is hosted by Chris Hill. I’m Mac Greer, Happy New Year. We will see you next week.
This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.
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